Why would they stay?

Tasmania’s senior school system is letting kids down.

The data’s out, and it’s not pretty: fewer Tasmanian students are staying on to complete Years 11 and 12. Retention rates are falling. Attendance is dropping. And yet no one’s really asking the most important question of all:

Why would they stay if it’s not getting them anywhere?

This isn’t about kids being lazy or unmotivated. It’s about a system that isn’t offering anything meaningful in return for two more years of study. If you’re 16 and your options are:

A) Stay in school for two more years and leave with little to show for it, or

B) Get a job and start earning now

It’s no wonder so many are choosing B.

Lost pathways

Let’s not pretend the expansion of high schools to Year 12 solved the problem. Most students still need to leave their local high school and switch to a senior college to finish school. That disruption breaks momentum. It breaks relationships. And too often, it breaks a young person’s faith that the system will work for them.

We keep talking about “pathways,” but let’s be honest, too many of them go nowhere. Kids are leaving with half-finished VET certificates, no job-ready skills, and no real plan for what’s next. University feels out of reach. TAFE is disconnected. And nobody’s explaining what the point of staying actually is.

Let’s get real

If we want better retention, we have to make Years 11 and 12 worth something. That means:

• Real, recognised qualifications that actually lead to jobs
• Stronger vocational programs that finish what they start
• Local partnerships with industries crying out for workers
• Support for rural students, who face more obstacles than most
• Flexible models, including paid earn-and-learn setups, so school doesn’t mean poverty

Tasmania can’t afford this

Letting young people drift away from education might seem like their choice, but it ends up being our cost. It’s our workforce, our economy, and our social safety net that suffers when we don’t invest in getting this right.

We talk about increasing productivity. Making education fit the path for well paying skilled jobs on the island is, surely, the goal.

So the next time someone points to a retention stat and shrugs, ask them: What would you do if you were 16, and school wasn’t offering you anything that felt worth it?

That’s the question Tasmania needs to answer, and quickly.