Premier Rockliff’s budget email

After yesterday’s state budget, the Premier took time out to email me personally with a summary of what went down. Here is that email:

Good afternoon Rotten Apples,

An important update from me. I’ll keep it simple. The Budget we’re handing down today delivers record investments in health, education and keeping Tasmanians safe.

It contains half-price public transport for students, record elective surgeries and four state-of-the-art mental health facilities. It also responsibly cuts the deficit by more than 80%.

We’ve come a long way as a State, building a $40bn economy. And because of all of your hard work, it’s growing faster than anywhere else in the country. Now it’s time to kick on and keep building a better Tasmania, now and for the future.

Enjoy the rest of your week,

Jeremy Rockliff Premier of Tasmania 

So, rather than be rude and ignore it, I responded politely but firmly:

Dear Premier Rockliff,

Thanks for the inbox spam. If a private firm tried to pitch investors with these headline numbers, the product would be pulled off the shelf for “misleading or deceptive conduct” before lunch.

To help, I’ve pointed out below where this communication goes wrong.

1 │ “Deficit slashed by 80 %”

Reality check: the Budget forecasts a $1.28 billion operating deficit next year and another $1.01 billion the year after, with no surplus until 2029-30 at the earliest. That’s not a haircut; that’s a five-year mullet of red ink.

2 │ Debt: the BNPL version of state finance

Net debt is on track to double to $10.78 billion by 2029-30, about $23, 000 for every Tasmanian. “Responsible”? Only if Afterpay is responsible.

3 │ The deficit is actually… getting bigger

Your own Revised Estimates Report shows this year’s deficit widened by half a billion dollars since the Budget was tabled. That’s the opposite of “cutting”.

4 │ Slashing, burning –– and a garage sale

Metro Tasmania, the Land Titles Office, even the MAIB are up on the block. Selling the family silver to pay the credit-card bill isn’t fiscal prudence; it’s a pawn-shop strategy.

5 │ Half-price buses (conditions apply)

The 50 % fare discount now applies only to students and regional travellers, and only until June 2026. Nice coupon. Call us when it’s a policy.

6 │ “Record elective surgeries” –– still a record waitlist

Yes, there’s $70 million over four years for a new Elective Surgery Plan, but the current backlog still runs into the thousands. Money alone doesn’t cut a queue.

7 │ Four flash mental-health hubs –– staff pending

Devonport gets a shiny $7.6 m hub; Launceston and the North-West get new precincts; St John’s Park is growing again. Great bricks. Where’s the workforce plan to run them?

8 │ Macquarie Point: the $615 million trickle-down experiment

A $945 million stadium ($615 m from the state) supposedly “pays for itself”. If stadiums were economic fairy dust, Sydney’s Olympic Park would be the new Dubai.

9 │ “Fastest-growing economy” –– from the lowest base

CommSec pegs Tasmania’s annual growth at 3.8 % –– top of the table. Good. But the Budget also banks $3.78 billion in GST next year, nearly 40 % of revenue. Growth funded by other people’s cheques isn’t a miracle; it’s federal equalisation doing its job.

Bottom line

Premier, the brochure claims record spending, record savings, and record growth, while the fine print screams record deficits, record debt and a record-priced stadium.

Under consumer law that’s called “bait advertising.”

Under ordinary English it’s called fluffery.

How about releasing the spreadsheets, the asset-sale hit-list and the independent stadium business case?

Until then, consider this an informal please explain from the people you asked to pick up the tab.

Rotten Apples, self appointed state parliamentarian cynic.