Don’t believe the hype

You’ve probably seen the headlines: “Liberals on the Rise!”, “Momentum Building!”, “Labor Falling Behind!”.

It all sounds very dramatic , until you read the fine print. Or better yet, read Dr Kevin Bonham, Tasmania’s sharpest election analyst, who’s called it for what it is: a poll paid for by the Liberal Party, showing results they were happy enough to release.

And even then? The poll basically says nothing has changed.

so let’s look at the numbers…

The EMRS poll, conducted in two waves of 550 people, has the Liberals at 34.5%, Labor at 28.2%, Greens at 13.9%, and independents holding a solid 17.8%.

Those numbers? Statistically identical to the first wave. And not far from other polls, either. In other words: despite the headlines, Tasmanians aren’t flocking back to the major parties.

They’re holding steady, frustrated, undecided, maybe even exhausted, and they’re still parking their votes with independents, crossbenchers, and anyone who doesn’t wear a red or blue tie.

And yet, the media runs it as momentum.

Because that’s what the parties want it to look like. Polls as narrative tools, not truth-tellers. A political weather report that somehow always predicts sunshine for whoever paid the bill.

Dr Bonham is blunt: party-commissioned polls are selectively released to create an illusion of movement. Just like in 2018, when the Liberals used robopolls to build a majority-wins-only narrative, and dragged the media along for the ride.

This time, they’re trying it again: talking up four seats in Bass and Braddon, boosting numbers in Franklin, floating projections of 15-16 Liberal seats… all based on tiny samples, unverified assumptions, and zero statistical significance.

Franklin, for example, is suddenly a Liberal stronghold in this poll — even though they’ve never done better than a modest bump there in the last century (unless you count the Anti-Socialist Party in 1909, which I am going to suggest we don’t).

This isn’t data. It’s spin. And the media, as Dr Bonham points out, ran it without challenge.

…and the bigger picture

Here’s what really matters:

• Support for independents is holding strong
• Tasmanians haven’t shifted dramatically
• Both major parties are stuck in the low 30s
• No one is offering a convincing path out of political gridlock except independents

This isn’t chaos. This is clarity. Voters aren’t dumb. They’re just done being told their only choice is one of two underwhelming options.

The next time you see a headline about “momentum,” ask who paid for it.
Ask whether the numbers actually changed.
Ask what story isn’t being told.

Because here’s the real story: Tasmanians want politics that reflects their lives, not a party’s marketing strategy.

And they’ll keep looking outside the major parties until they get it.