Smart growth or stagnation?
Because Tasmania’s population growth wasn’t the only thing that needed a voice.
Tasmania aims for a population of 650,000 by 2050, a seemingly modest increase of 70,000 over 25 years.
However, this masks a critical reality: without immediate and effective action, Tasmania risks economic decline despite population growth.
Tasmania reached its 2030 population target early, adding roughly 100,000 people since 2003. This success, however, has revealed significant weaknesses. Housing is scarce, rents are escalating, and essential services are struggling to keep pace with the current population. Growth is no longer a future challenge; it is present, and Tasmania is struggling to adapt.
Former Premier Peter Gutwein warns that no growth means decline, leading to fewer businesses, services, and young families, ultimately burdening the remaining population with higher taxes.
A crucial point is that who we attract is as important as how many. Tasmania’s future prosperity hinges on attracting young workers, entrepreneurs, and families who will drive business, innovation, and economic progress. An aging population can also be valuable if aged care, housing, and community services are developed as growth industries rather than liabilities.
Fundamentally, all of this depends on fixing the housing crisis. Tasmania currently lacks sufficient housing. Land release is slow, construction costs are high, and planning processes are hampered by red tape. If Tasmania cannot build enough homes quickly, the number of people wanting to move there will be irrelevant, as there will be no place for them to live or reason for them to stay.
Failure to address these issues risks a severe downward spiral:
- Schools closing
- Businesses shutting down
- Communities hollowing out
- Taxes rising to support a shrinking, aging population
The choice is clear: Tasmania must grow strategically or face stagnation. Its best years are still attainable, but only if population growth is treated as a critical strategic challenge, not just a promotional slogan.
People are coming. The fundamental question is whether Tasmania will be prepared or left behind.